Phil Smith's Championship predictions: Who to watch out for and how Sunderland might fare

As the new season looms, there is cause for real optimism on Wearside but the wider landscape of the Championship also demands some caution.

Sunderland surpassed all expectations in finishing sixth last season and did so playing some of the best football generations of fans can remember.

Five days out from the new campaign, there is no real reason to think that the club’s upwards trajectory cannot continue. The side that will walk out to face Ipswich Town on Sunday will feature the core of the side that finished last season so impressively, and so many of those players should be ready to kick on again with another season of experience under their belt. Clarke, Neil, Ekwah, Ballard, Hume... all should be ready to progress and thrive and if you could throw plenty of others into the mix, too.

While there has been significant speculation regarding high-profile departures, the mood behind the scenes has been fairly relaxed all summer and as of yet, the kind of bids that would force a deep breath and a difficult decision to be made have not really come close to materialising.

Sunderland’s summer business has again focused mainly on emerging talent and the fees invested underline a club on the up and with genuine ambition. Perhaps most importantly for the here and now, there has also been a clear strategy to try and add some of the height and physicality that was missing at times last season. It feels as if another season of entertaining football under Tony Mowbray is upon us and if that added athleticism can help vary Sunderland’s play a little, their indifferent home form from last season will surely improve.

For all that, it does feel as if optimism should still err on the side of caution. Last season proved to be a relatively weak field, with Watford, Norwich City and West Brom in particular performing well below all expectations to open up the top-six spaces. History suggests relegated sides will make their parachute payments show over the course of the campaign and Southampton, Leeds United and Leicester City look imposing.

Then there is Middlesbrough, superb for two-thirds of last season and Coventry City, now without Viktor Gyokeres but having reinvested that money ambitiously. Ipswich Town, whose budget and talent already surpasses much of the division. You could go on for some time here, which rather proves the point. Perhaps the only prediction you could make with real certainty is that the first couple of international breaks could be even more brutal for the head coaches than normal: there are probably around sixteen teams who begin the campaign genuinely aiming for the top six. 

Sunderland have shown that they can compete with any side at this level, but they still have a couple of uncertainties to work through before that quiet confidence can approach anything near bullishness. As it stands Hemir remains the club’s only recognised striker, meaning they are fatigue or an injury away from being back at square one: asking Mowbray to deliver some false-nine inspired magic. Ross Stewart’s comeback remains a little way off yet, and even then there are no guarantees over his future. And while Clarke, Roberts, Pritchard Dack et al offer an exciting behind the striker, the match-winning ability Amad brought to the table is arguably yet to be really replaced. There is serious talent in the Sunderland squad, but fourteen goals are not easily replaced and particularly while Stewart is sidelined.

To maintain their place in the play-off race Sunderland will have to be stronger than last time around. Natural progression will account for some of that, but you sense that there is still some important work to be done in the transfer market.

That these are exciting times all the same, is not in doubt.

PROMOTED

Southampton invested heavily in young talent last summer and while they proved not quite ready for the Premier League, I have a feeling they could thrive at this level with that exposure now under their belt. There are some doubts given that Russell Martin has never really overseen a promotion push, but his sides dominate the ball and with this calibre of play, at home in particular they’ll be so hard to stop.

Leeds United look strong right now, a proven operator in the dugout and despite some likely future departures, plenty of experience and talent in the XI.

PLAY-OFFS 

Leicester City and Middlesbrough are near certainties if they don’t make the top two. After that, you can pick any two from around twelve sides. We’ll be optimistic and go for Sunderland, with the previous caveat that a couple of strong reinforcements are required. Coventry City look well placed as it stands, though it’s interesting to see that late in the window Stoke City are beginning to invest at the level we’d all expected when Alex Neil left Wearside. They’re beginning to look like real contenders.

RELEGATED 

This is a tough one to call this season. In recent campaigns there have always been a couple of clubs in such strife off the pitch, that their struggles on it seem inevitable. 

It doesn’t really feel that way, this time around. QPR, though, had a sharp decline after the departure of Michael Beale and while Gareth Ainsworth’s style proved hugely successful at Wycombe, it didn’t click last season and a slow start could make the mood there pretty toxic.

Rotherham United did well last year but the overall strength of the league might make it harder for them this time around. 

I’m backing Sheffield Wednesday’s experience to just about edge out Cardiff City, who need Aaron Ramsey to come good and Erol Bulut to be a superb manager after such a poor campaign last time around. If Neil Warnock stays the course Huddersfield Town probably won’t be in this conversation but if he doesn’t, they absolutely will.

TOP SCORER 

Generally you look to those relegated sides and Adam Armstrong looks a decent shot to me. His record at this level is very good, and Southampton will create plenty of chances.